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Old 07-26-2007   #1
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Default A very hard probability question?

Okay, hypothetical scenario: both of my parents have just been born. My mother has 1.5 million eggs. My father has one billion (just a guess, I don't really know) spermazoa. Someday, at some point in their lives, they will conceive of one child. What are the odds that the child will be me?
Old 07-26-2007   #2
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Old 07-26-2007   #3
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You are formed by one specific egg from your mother and one specific spermazoa from your father. This means that the chance an egg to be the one that formed you is 1/1500000 (1/number of eggs) and the chance of the spermazoa to be the one that formed you is 1/1000000000 (1/number of spermazoa). The chance of the combination (which will form you) is the multiplication of the above chances, meaning 1/1500000*1/1000000000=......
Old 07-26-2007   #4
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According to my calculator, it would be (approximately 1,500,000,000,000,000 (1.5 quadrillion.) to 1(one xp). The factors include what time of the month you were conceived, as well as which month of which year, etc.
Old 07-26-2007   #5
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We can say that the probabiltity of the child being you is 1/(1,500,000*1,000,000,000)on the assumption that each of the eggs has equal chance to meet a sperm firstly and so does each of the sperms.But obvious this assumption can never be true, even in a single drop of sperm, there are hundreds of millions of sperms whose energy differ greatly , some of them are even abnormal which will die very soon, so there is really a lack of defined condition to work out what the probability really is.

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