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Old 07-17-2007   #11
scythian1950
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This is similiar to a question I posed 7 months ago. See link. This is what I'd call a "meta-probability" question, because we're having to wonder about the odds of odds. If we note that the first 100 people passing by us are all men, the odds are that the odds of the next person being male isn't 1/2. An early thinker about this sort of problem is Thomas Bayes, after whom Bayesian theory is named.































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Old 07-17-2007   #12
none2perdy
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If we assume that the base probability of male/female for a single person is 0.5 then:1) the probability of the 101st person being female "given" that the first 100 were male *is* 0.52) the probability of getting 100m|1f in sequence is 0.5^101, a very different numberYou have to specify which probability more precisely to remove the ambiguity
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Old 07-17-2007   #13
Lili2515
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i vote 50% as well
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