If you count people passing by you, and first 100 are all men, what is... - Page 2 - XP Math - Forums

 XP Math - Forums If you count people passing by you, and first 100 are all men, what is...

 07-17-2007 #11 scythian1950 Guest   Posts: n/a This is similiar to a question I posed 7 months ago. See link. This is what I'd call a "meta-probability" question, because we're having to wonder about the odds of odds. If we note that the first 100 people passing by us are all men, the odds are that the odds of the next person being male isn't 1/2. An early thinker about this sort of problem is Thomas Bayes, after whom Bayesian theory is named. answers.yahoo.com
 07-17-2007 #12 none2perdy Guest   Posts: n/a If we assume that the base probability of male/female for a single person is 0.5 then:1) the probability of the 101st person being female "given" that the first 100 were male *is* 0.52) the probability of getting 100m|1f in sequence is 0.5^101, a very different numberYou have to specify which probability more precisely to remove the ambiguity
 07-17-2007 #13 Lili2515 Guest   Posts: n/a i vote 50% as well

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